Today (4 July) we went to the RHS Hampton Court Palace Garden Festival for the first time. It was a great day out, but, I must admit, a bit overwhelming. I had no idea of its vastness. Nevertheless, it was delightful to see the displays and the passion for gardens and gardening that runs so deep in British culture.
We are in the midst of what is known in the UK as ‘the season.’ In addition to the quadrennial international sports competitions abroad, a wide range of events are available here, to lure you from the office out into the summer sun. From rowing to racing, arias to azaleas, if you’re lucky, you may find yourself with the dilemma of choosing between Henley, Goodwood and Wimbledon—or trying to fit in all three!
Summer swansongs
Today is notable for another reason: the UK general election.
This event reminded me of a time, just over eight years ago. On the day of the Brexit referendum, I was at a drinks party with a group of school parents. The football Euros were still at the group stage, and talk was as much about a legendary goalkeeper (Buffon) playing his final international game as about a founding member (Britain) exiting the EU field.
Over Pimm’s and pizza, one hedge fund manager I spoke to was very sanguine. When asked how much his life might change in a little under 24 hours, he stoically responded that, while it would certainly complicate things for his clients, ‘We are just going to have to work a little bit harder.’
Spectrum of perspectives
Whenever there are major geopolitical events or drama in the markets, we hear from voices across the spectrum—from bulls to bears, from speculators to worrywarts.
While today’s election today may see an end to an extended run by one political party, we won’t speculate on the outcome or pontificate on the future of British society.
In the property business, the signals and sentiment range across a spectrum of opinions. Some clients want to hold off making major investment decisions until the results of the election are in. Others anticipate nothing so drastic to put them off their chosen course.
Over the past week, at lunches, brunches and receptions, we’ve been listening more than talking. Some professional advisers expressed their opinions:
- The solicitor reports that several clients are trying to complete on transactions before the election result
- One estate agent says their clients assume the results are baked in to prices and it won’t impact their purchase plans
- An analyst predicts that the outcome is likely to bring stability to the property market, good news for UK property as an investment
- A financial adviser tells us that when it comes to an election, no matter whether you’re blue or red, no one expects significant shocks to asset values
Prospects in property
The conventional wisdom has always been that, regardless of the politics of the moment, markets prefer certainty.
No matter how complicated we think things are, or how current conditions may seem unprecedented, somehow life goes on. Maybe you need to change schools for your child. Perhaps the house that was the perfect location two years ago is no longer ideal. You may feel leaving the home you’ve known for 16 years is a bit frightening/exciting. There’s a wide range of factors driving change, just as there is spectrum of how people make decisions to deal with it.
In property, patience is a virtue, and discernment is important. Just as in the social scene, across the UK there is something for everyone. It may take some time, but you will be able to buy or sell.
Another kind of season
Despite it being the height of the social season, we find ourselves being extremely busy this month. That’s due to another season; summer is the time when many foreign nationals come to London to view properties. There’s a short window in which they are available to view suitable properties and put in offers.
For many of them the outcome of the UK election and the allure of perusing garden displays are not a distraction from pursuing their family ambitions and investment plans.
Advisers see the big picture
Markets are complex. Politics can get messy. People change. Good professional advisers acknowledge that no one can possibly know everything. The best ones know how to find out. The ability to see the big picture gives them credibility and provides a kind of certainty that clients value.
If you’re in town this season, drop us a line.
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